Ah, it's that time of year again! The kids are going back to school, and more importantly, the athletes are getting back on the field. Next weekend marks what I believe is perhaps the best sports weekend of the year: first NFL Sunday of the year, second college football Saturday, and the U.S. Open tennis finals. It's kind of funny comparing the two sports, considering how different they are (I hope to make a "sports broadcasters" blog post soon - sneak peek: tennis announcers are awesome, football announcers suck). Anyway, I'll give a review of some tennis goings-on, focused on the U.S. Open primarily, before focusing on an NFL season preview. Enjoy! (and let me know where you disagree if you're so inclined)
Tennis:
As of this writing, the U.S. Open is just about halfway done. It's been a good tournament so far, but first I'd like to give a little season recap. Novak Djokovic, who I first came to notice (and become a fan of) when he beat Roger Federer en route to winning the 2008 Australian Open, is having an absolutely extraordinary year - and one that is being tragically overlooked by the sports world overall. He came into the year ranked a very respectable third in the world behind the greatest player of all time, Roger Federer, and a guy who at this point is now even better (Rafael Nadal). In just six months, he has bypassed both men to become #1, going 57-2 coming into the U.S. Open. He has won nine tournaments this year, including the Australian and French Opens. He has beaten Federer three times (and lost once, thanks to a truly vintage performance from Fed), and beaten Nadal FIVE times. I've admired "the Djoker's" sense of humor (search YouTube for "Djokovic," "Sharapova," and "Head") and his humility for some time, and, since reading an SI article about him, learned of his early family struggles in Serbia and intense, focused training regimen. Djokovic has my full admiration this season for his phenomenal success and the way he's gone about it. Bravo.
To the U.S. Open: on the men's side, all four top seeds - Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and Murray - are still in (though Murray got taken to five sets last round). Other notable players include Mardy Fish, the top ranked American having a career resurgence and playing solid tennis. Roddick also remains, despite falling dramatically in the rankings. Two others to watch are Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a Frenchman who has beaten Federer twice this year, and Juan Martin del Potro, a big young guy who beat Federer to win the U.S. Open two years ago.
On the women's side, havoc has been wreaked on the top seeds - but that has become so common for the women recently that it's not very surprising. Top seed Caroline Wozniacki has looked quite strong. She doesn't have an exceptional game, but has thrived with the lack of other superstars. Second seed Vera Zvonareva is still in it, a dangerous player who has reached Grand Slam finals before. Serena's return disappoints me, as I've never been a fan of her arrogance and disdain for her opponents (not to mention her completely unprofessional outburst at the U.S. Open a few years ago).
Djokovic remains the favorite for the men, as he shows no signs of slowing after a recent shoulder tweak. Nadal has been struggling - at least by his usual standards - perhaps because of the beatdowns Djokovic has given him this year. I give Federer a better chance than Nadal at this point, but he has been vulnerable to second tier foes this year (ie: Tsonga). Barring injury to the top three, I don't see anyone else with a great shot, though Murray has an outside chance of taking advantage of any off days or injuries. For the women, I must sadly admit that Serena is the favorite with her dominant game. Wozniacki is consistent enough to beat most players, but doesn't have the firepower to compete with Serena. Zvonareva might actually have a better chance to beat Serena in the finals, but she'll have to be at the top of her game (*crosses fingers*).
The men's game has certainly been the highlight of the 2011 season, as Djokovic has improbably asserted himself as belonging among - even surpassing - the Federer-Nadal combo that had dominated for so long. This in turn has given other players renewed confidence, and so the men's game is very entertaining right now. The women's game, unfortunately... not so much. I've seen several quite poor matches in the U.S. Open, and the only consistent superstar is Serena who I dislike (and she keeps coming down with injuries, hence her ranking). The men's final of the U.S. Open, no matter who is in it, should be excellent, so tune in if you can.
NFL:
The 2011 lockout is now a distant memory as we get ready for the kickoff of the season on Thursday. However, it will be interesting to see how the reduction in team practice and the frantic free agency period caused by the lockout will affect the league. A general consensus is that team's with little personnel or coaching turnover will do the best, which makes sense. There are many other things to look out for, as well. The Eagles assembled a so-called "Dream Team" after the lockout, led by LeBron - er, Michael Vick, and highlighted by the signing of shut down cornerback (had to double check the spelling here) Nnamdi Asomugha. Several new contenders will try to prove that they weren't a fluke (Kansas City, Tampa Bay, St. Louis). Others will try to grind one step closer to a Super Bowl as they build on their recent success (Baltimore, Atlanta, N.Y. Jets). And who knows which teams will come out of nowhere to contend? Now I'll go through each division and predict their records (I'm not going through each game here, just trying to get the number of total losses and wins to match up).
AFC East:
1. Team That Shall Not Be Named (known from here on out as "TTSNBN")
Last Year: 14-2
Projected: 13-3
No comment.
2. N.Y. Jets
Last Year: 11-5
Projected: 10-6
I feel like this could be a turning point year for the Jets. They've been contending well since getting Coach Ryan - but there seems to have been an invisible ceiling for their overall success so far. I didn't notice a whole lot of player movement this offseason, so I'm assuming the defense will be very good again (although when I watch them sometimes I feel it's a little vulnerable). The real question is how will QB Mark Sanchez and RB Shonn Greene play. Greene must become the workhorse they expect him to be (hasn't happened yet), and Sanchez must help him by keeping defenses honest, at the least. This team is going to either improve or get worse - they won't be the team they were the last two years.
3. Miami Dolphins
Last Year: 7-9
Projected: 7-9
In a lot of ways the Dolphins remind me of the Jets - except that they're not as good across the board. They have a very good defense - but not as good as the Jets'. They have a young, struggling QB - but Henne isn't even as good as Sanchez. And they have questions in the running game - and here they are in much worse shape than the Jets here. The defense will keep them in games, but Henne MUST improve for this team to move up. I don't see it.
4. Buffalo Bills
Last Year: 4-12
Projected: 3-13
Here we have our first member of what I'll deem the Poop Pile. Several characteristics that describe the Bills and their cohorts are a bland, identity-less franchise; a horrible QB situation; and few hopeful prospects. I'm really not sure why they bother trying anymore. Of course, now they'll probably make the playoffs. But really, the Bills just suck all around.
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens
Last Year: 12-4
Projected: 12-4
Yes, this is partially an attempt at a reverse jinx. The Ravens haven't looked good yet in the preseason, and I think they might struggle early in the year, but I have a feeling they'll work it out. I feel that while their defense will continue to decay a bit this year (only 10th overall last year), their offense should finally break out. Ray Rice keeps improving, and he's got better blocking this year. Joe Flacco is under the same system, and gets new receiver help. They won't look like the old Ravens so much, but they'll be good by the end of the year.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
Last Year: 12-4
Projected: 10-6
The schedule looks favorable for the Steelers this year, and they just went to the Super Bowl. Which is why I'm predicting they have somewhat of a let down this year. Whenever it seems like they have an easy schedule, they tend to live down to it, I've noticed. And the Super Bowl loser jinx has a rather depressing consistency. I'm hoping I'm wrong, but I think that this might be a frustrating year for the black 'n' gold.
3. Cleveland Browns
Last Year: 5-11
Projected: 8-8
Fear the Browns' stains after they have left your stadium this year! OK, OK, that was a bad one, I'm sorry. However, I think the Browns will take advantage of an easier schedule this year, unlike Pittsburgh, and they won't get the same respect as their big brothers. Colt McCoy will continue to improve, and Hillis will do well again with appropriate support to keep from wearing down. The beat down of TTSNBN last year was a sign of things to come, I think.
4. Cincinnati Bungles
Last Year: 4-12
Projected: 2-14
The Bungles had a semi-effective offense last year and still won only 4 games. Now they've lost Chad Palmer, Chad Ochocinco, and Terrell Owens. Uh oh. I think we're in for another classic Bungles season, perhaps even worse than usual.
AFC South
1. Houston Texans
Last Year: 6-10
Projected: 10-6
Yes, this is the year I think the Texans will finally break through and win the division. I guess "walk" through might be a better description, considering my 9-7 projection. Houston's offense is spectacular, with both a great passing and running attack. The problem is a defense that ranked 30th last year. They did bring in a good defensive coordinator, but it's doubtful it'll be that much better this year. Still, the Texans should win the division because of the next team.
2. Indianapolis Colts
Last Year: 10-6
Projected: 8-8
The Colts, so steady in the regular season for so long, now depend on the health of their long-time QB Peyton Manning. Very little is known currently about his neck injury. Perhaps he won't miss any time and he'll be as good as ever. Or he could miss half the season or the whole season. So the possible outcomes for this team are quite varied. Aside from Manning, though, the defense isn't any better, and neither is the running game. All outcomes considered, I expect a moderate decline for the Colts this year.
3. Tennessee Titans
Last Year: 6-10
Projected: 8-8
Some good news, some bad news for the Titans. They lost both their starting QB and head coach from last year, who famously did not get along. Their replacements are a relatively inexperienced coach and a solid veteran QB. Chris Johnson should bounce back a little from an "off" year last year, with more stability at QB and a better O-line. However, the team will have to adjust to a new coaching staff, and their defense was surprisingly poor last year. This team has potential, but I think it'll be slow going.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Last Year: 8-8
Projected: 5-11
I don't know how the heck this team finished 8-8 last year. Whenever I have seen them play, they just seem to be a pretty poor team. The defense is awful, and so the team must score lots to stay in games. I don't see that happening this year. If MJD gets hurt (and he's been banged up before), they will be in even more trouble. Frankly, this team really just doesn't interest me, so let's move on.
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers
Last Year: 9-7
Projected: 13-3
I think the Chargers are serious title contenders this year. They have a number of things going for them. They were #1 in yards allowed AND yards gained last year, yet somehow finished 9-7. A lot of that, it is believed, was due to poor special teams play. With the new kickoff rule, however, that problem should be less of an issue. As long as injuries don't hit hard again, this team is set to dominate both sides of the ball, with Philip Rivers leading the charge as a rising elite QB.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
Last Year: 10-6
Projected: 8-8
I predicted this team would do better than expected last year, though I didn't expect that well. Benefiting from a pretty easy schedule, the Chiefs were only a little above average on offense and defense. I think teams will be better prepared for them this year (see their domination by the Ravens in the playoffs) and facing stiffer competition. They're still fine, but they'll come back to earth somewhat.
3. Denver Broncos
Last Year: 4-12
Projected: 6-10
The Broncos dumped their run-and-gun coach Josh McDaniels (formerly of TTSNBN, so good riddance) for the steadier, conservative John Fox (from Carolina). The defense really can't be any worse this year, since it was dead last last year, but it's difficult to see major immediate improvement. The offense was decent last year, but it will undergo a dramatic transformation most likely. Fewer ups and downs might lead to a slightly better record this year, but nothing more.
4. Oakland Raiders
Last Year: 8-8
Projected: 5-11
Last year, the Raiders ran all over everyone - but everyone ran all over them, too. Their strength, pass defense, took a huge hit in the offseason by losing Asomugha. RB McFadden had his healthiest, most productive season last year; they must pray that he remains healthy and that they can finally get something out of the passing game. That's because it's likely their defense will give up quite a few more points this year.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles
Last Year: 10-6
Projected: 11-5
The Eagles, in the span of a year, have gone from a fading NFC East team to the most followed one in the entire league. Michael Vick improved beyond anyone's wildest expectations last year, but the problem is his offensive line is still terrible, as the preseason has shown. They do have Vince Young as a solid backup, but if they lose Vick, they will be much less effective. The defense also has areas of great strength, but there are weaknesses, too. The expectations for this team are too high, but they'll still do well with an easy schedule.
2. Dallas Cowboys
Last Year: 6-10
Projected: 9-7
After firing Wade Philips last year, the Cowboys managed to be halfway decent, despite the loss of their star QB Tony Romo. As long as he can stay healthy this year, which is reasonable, the team has the potential to match the offensive firepower of their state rivals the Texans. But like the Texans, their defense is also a major question. They will likely be facing shootouts again this year - but with Romo, they should win more of them than last year.
3. N.Y. Giants
Last Year: 10-6
Projected: 8-8
The Giants put up some impressive stats last year, ranking in the top ten in offense and defense. However, I just don't see Eli Manning leading this team much farther than he has without some serious help - like 2007's dominant defense. RB Ahmad Bradshaw is fragile, but they depend on him for balance. The defense is strong overall, but can be exposed. I just don't have a good feeling about this team, although they shouldn't be bad, either.
4. Washington Redskins
Last Year: 6-10
Projected: 3-13
Here's another member of the poop pile. Reason #1: their QB situation. After stupidly thinking McNabb could single-handedly save them last year, they dumped him for... who? They now have the legendary Rex Grossman, and perpetual bench-warmer John Beck. Ouch. They looked decent in preseason, but many, many other bad teams have, too. Plus, the Redskins just irritate me with their perennial underachieving, so maybe this is the year they truly bomb out and someone does something about it.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
Last Year: 10-6
Projected: 13-3
While Super Bowl losers certainly have a poor track record, winners also don't have it easy. They can fairly point to being a different team this year, hopefully getting back a number of key players who were hurt last year - including their starting RB. They are very well balanced, and I don't see anything particularly wrong with them. But it seems that a combination of a little less drive with being a key target for opponents may get to them come playoff time.
2. Detroit Lions
Last Year: 6-10
Projected: 10-6
Yes, I am on the bandwagon - and I'm just as shocked myself, believe me. But this team has been creeping up the last few years. They had some truly terrible luck last year, both in game results and health (starting QB missed most of the season). The defensive line shook up the QB of TTSNBN this preseason, not a feat to be taken lightly, and the offense has a lot of potential. With a weakened division, I think this is the year they start to play with contention.
3. Minnesota Vikings
Last Year: 6-10
Projected: 7-9
The Vikings' defense continued to be strong last year, but as old man Favre fell apart, so did the offense overall. Peterson is the best RB in the game, but it just shows you how important the passing game is now. McNabb is certainly a step up, but as he showed in Washington last year, it takes him time to learn a new system. Plus, they lost their best receiver in the offseason. If an aging McNabb can't adjust, or gets hurt, they'll find a lot of games just outside their reach.
4. Chicago Bears
Last Year: 10-6
Projected: 6-10
Possibly last year's luckiest team - having watched them quite a bit on TV - I confidently predict that they're going down this year. From first to worst. Jay Cutler is the dictionary definition of gunslinger, hurting his team as often as helping it. And if the backup is the same as last year, they really, really, really have to hope he doesn't get injured. Speaking of injuries, the defense remained miraculously healthy last year, which bucks the trend. Bye, bye, Bears.
AFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons
Last Year: 13-3
Projected: 12-4
The Falcons' defense was just average last year, but I liked the way they looked. They have a good coach, and seem to have good focus and overall strategy. While I think they'll need to take some pressure off their RB Michael Turner, who they've been riding a little too hard the last few years, I think they can do it. Matt Ryan isn't flashy, but he's a smart QB who now has another weapon in rookie WR Julio Jones to go with Roddy White. I certainly can see this going the other way, but I think Atlanta will keep their division title.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last Year: 10-6
Projected: 11-5
The Bucs are a dynamic young team, one that surprised me last year (I saw them as a Buffalo Bills-type bland team). Their defense, like most of the division, is average at best, but they have some up and coming offensive weapons in QB Josh Freeman and RB LeGarrette Blount. I'm basically betting here that they'll continue to improve, but I think they will, especially if they get more help from the defense.
3. New Orleans Saints
Last Year: 11-5
Projected: 9-7
Drew Brees should be getting a decent running game back this season, helping to balance an offense that relied too much on the pass and therefore had too many turnovers. But the defense still concerns me. They actually had better overall numbers than I thought, having looked them up, but I'm still skeptical. They certainly could go make me look stupid and win the division; I just have a feeling that the defense is going to degrade this year and they'll slide back a little.
4. Carolina Panthers
Last Year: 2-14
Projected: 3-13
I think the Panthers bottomed out last year, and now they begin their slow rise back to at least mediocrity (and if they can't get past there, of course, there may be more rebuilding). The team still has two very talented running backs, which should take some pressure off rookie QB Cam Newton from having to immediately become a star. Their defense was only a little worse than average (run defense being the weakest link) which should let them win more than a measly two games this year.
NFC West
1. St. Louis Rams
Last Year: 7-9
Projected: 9-7
Ah, the NFC West. It's truly the wild west out there, with the division up for grabs by anyone. In fact, it often seemed last year that none of the teams did want it. With a defensive-minded head coach, and a new high-octane offensive coordinator, the Rams are sure to improve in both areas with their young roster. QB Sam Bradford, in particular, has shown himself steady in leading an offense with the help of veteran RB Steven Jackson. Plus, they get six very winnable games, as they do each year.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Last Year: 6-10
Projected: 8-8
The 49ers have the best defense in the division, and that's why they should get 2nd place in the division. The agonizing position for this team, though, is the all-important QB. They seem set to start Alex Smith again this year, but as anyone who follows football knows, that probably won't last long. With RB Frank Gore, WR Braylon Edwards and TE Vernon Davis, this team is just begging for a good leader. If they can actually find one, they may even win the division.
3. Arizona Cardinals
Last Year: 5-11
Projected: 5-11
How the Cardinals managed to win even five games last year is a mystery to me. They ranked just about last in both offense and defense. One of the best receivers in the game, Fitzgerald, was frustrated by one of the most pathetic casts of QBs I've ever seen. Their running game and defense was just as bad. Much depends on how well unproven QB Kevin Kolb can play. If he can find a groove with Fitzgerald, their offense should improve - but some complementary running would also be nice. With the upgrade at QB, they'll probably make up for the luck that got them to five wins last year.
4. Seattle Seahawks
Last Year: 7-9
Projected: 4-12
With all due respect to the Bears and Cardinals, the Seahawks were the luckiest team last year. They are the last member of my Poop Pile squad, and this year even more so than ever. Matt Hasselbeck gave them a decent, steady QB for an otherwise talentless offense. And they traded him... instead acquiring Tarvaris "Short Arm" Jackson. They did trade for WR Sidney Rice... but who is going to get him the ball (ala Fitzgerald-Arizona last year)? The defense is as bad as Arizona's. So have fun, Seattle.
Whew! That was long. So, by extension of my projected standings, the AFC playoff teams will be TTSNBN, Baltimore, Houston, and San Diego, with Pittsburgh and N.Y. Jets as wild cards. NFC playoff teams will be Philadelphia, Green Bay, Atlanta, and St. Louis, with Tampa Bay and (*gulp*) Detroit as wild cards. With that in mind, I'll predict San Diego over Atlanta in the Super Bowl. However it turns out (other than TTSNBN winning the Super Bowl), enjoy the season!
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