2012 NFL Preview

2012 NFL Preview

It's that time of year again!  The beginning of the school year, the last few weeks of warm summer weather, the sounds of the marching band, and, of course, the start of the football season.  As I've noted before, you just never quite know what to expect from an upcoming NFL season, and that's one of the things that makes the league so fun to follow.  I'm not going to go through the trouble of coming up with specific win-loss totals for each team this year, but I'll list the order of finish I predict for each division.  Each team preview includes my prediction from last year, which hopefully might give clues to what changes are in store for this year.  

To see the order in which I think each division will finish and playoff seedings, scroll to the bottom.  First section has paragraph blurbs on each team's prospects.  Those interested in the currently half-done tennis U.S. Open, fear not:  I plan to do another blog post in perhaps two weeks summarizing the tournament (plus impressions after the first week of NFL).


AFC:

East

1.  Team That Shall Not Be Named (TTSNBN)
2011 Prediction:  13-3 (1st in division)
2011 Standings:  13-3 (1st in division)

Yippee, I correctly predicted TTSNBN (*twirls a finger in the air*).  Oh well, they lost the Super Bowl :-D :-D :-D  This is my annual attempt to jinx this villain of the NFL (although the rest of their division gives no reason not to have them on top yet again).

2.  Buffalo Bills
2011 Prediction:  3-13
2011 Standings:  6-10

A 5-2 start last year threatened to make me feel really stupid about my prediction, but then seven straight losses ended that fear.  Still, I think this team has much more potential than the other two in the division.  Their defense gave up lots of points last year, but again, they've got four games against offensively-challenged Miami and N.Y. Jets this year, plus they added defensive beat Mario Williams.  Fitzpatrick is a solid, underrated QB, and if RB Fred Jackson can stay healthy, they should improve on last year's record.

3.  Miami Dolphins
2011 Prediction:  7-9
2011 Standings:  6-10

The Dolphins were basically a "blah" team last year, although they defended the run well and, surprisingly, ran it well themselves.  Of course, this year their starting QB is a rookie I've never heard of, they lost their best WR, and they're relying on Reggie Bush to continue his out-of-the-blue development as a workhorse back from last year.  Still, they won six of their last nine games last year.  Yeah, they won't be good, but their defense always seems to keep them close.

4.  New York Jets
2011 Prediction:  10-6
2011 Standings:  8-8

Possibly the most overrated team in the NFL.  They somehow scraped a decent amount of points out of a pretty lame passing and rushing attack last year, but their once-vaunted defense is definitely showing signs of breakdown.  Mark Sanchez is simply a mediocre QB at best, and bringing Tebow into the mix will only provide more distractions for the most distracting team in the league.  Their defense will have to keep the score low almost every game, and I don't think they can do it consistently anymore.


West

1.  Denver Broncos
2011 Prediction:  6-10
2011 Standings:  8-8

Offensively, this team is a 180 switch from last year - as long as Peyton Manning stays healthy.  The upgrade from Tebow to Manning is extreme - they were second to last in passing last year, and still retain a great running game with the loss of Tebow.  Granted, this was preseason, but Manning just carved up the 49ers defense a few weeks ago.  The fate of this team will be decided, though, with their defense.  They have some fearsome pass rushers, but they gave up lots of points last year.  Still, their offense alone should propel them to the top of the mediocre division.

2.  Kansas City Chiefs
2011 Prediction:  8-8
2011 Standings:  7-9

The Chiefs' hopes were essentially snuffed out in week 2 last year when RB Jamaal Charles was lost for the rest of the season.  He's back though, and they've added bruiser RB Peyton Hillis to help carry the load.  QB Matt Cassel is also back, but he is no more than a game manager for the featured running game (of course, his backups couldn't even accomplish that last year).  Their rush defense is porous, but they boast a sneaky-good pass defense that put them in the top half of scoring defenses last year.  There are lots of unknowns and I haven't seen them this preseason, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them win the division.

3.  San Diego Chargers
2011 Prediction:  13-3
2011 Standings:  8-8

Of course, now that I'm finally off the Chargers' bandwagon, they will probably come through.  This is one of the most bewildering teams in the league, seemingly possessing great talent yet not showing up to play their best again and again.  Why their coach has not been fired yet I have no idea; he richly deserves it, from what I've seen.  It would help for QB Rivers to get back to normal for a full season, and we saw glimpses of it in the last five games.  But can RB Mathews stay healthy?  What are they going to get out of their defense?  The Chargers probably have the widest range of possible results.

4.  Oakland Raiders
2011 Prediction:  5-11
2011 Standings:  8-8

No, the Raiders aren't the laughing stock of the league anymore.  Yet how do you trust a team with Carson Palmer at QB, a RB in McFadden who is always injured, and a defense that gives up the fourth-most points in the league?  I suppose if McFadden somehow stays healthy they can be competitive... but if he doesn't, I can't see them winning many shootouts week-in, week-out.


North

1.  Baltimore Ravens
2011 Prediction:  12-4
2011 Standings:  12-4

The Ravens are one of the safest bets in the league to be a playoff team, despite their strong divisional competition - it's the playoffs that bother them.  For the regular season, however, this team seems destined for another AFC North crown.  The passing game has plenty of room for improvement, while they can rely on superstar RB Ray Rice to keep the chains moving.  Despite an aging defense, they gave up the third-fewest points in the league last year.  They don't tend to wow you, but the steady Ravens will beat you more often than not just the same.

2.  Pittsburgh Steelers
2011 Prediction:  10-6
2011 Standings:  12-4

As symbolized nicely by their season sweep last year, I feel that the Ravens are starting to pull away from their bitter rivals the Steelers.  Both teams continue to ride incredibly well-designed, effective defensive systems with aging individuals and promising youngsters.  However, while the Ravens' can rely on RB Ray Rice to balance their offense, too much pressure is placed on the Steelers' Big Ben each week.  Even with his huge frame, he is constantly getting beaten up (to be sure, he deserves it for his off-field behavior).  Developing players like WR Antonio Brown will keep the Steelers in the playoff hunt, but I don't expect the consistency from them that I do from the Ravens this year.

3.  Cincinnati Bengals
2011 Prediction:  2-14
2011 Standings:  9-7

What a huge surprise the Bengals were last year.  I think they need at least another year to develop, but they'll be seriously challenging the Ravens and Steelers sooner rather than later.  The offense, despite sputtering for much of last year, feature a solid young QB-WR tandem in Andy Dalton and A.J. Green.  Plus they picked up a very steady new RB in BenJarvus Green-Ellis (aka the Law Firm).  Their defense isn't at the Ravens' and Steelers' elite level, but they are a force to be reckoned with.  Put them in another division, and this is a playoff team already.

4.  Cleveland Browns
2011 Prediction:  8-8
2011 Standings:  4-12

I'm sorry, Browns fans.  I truly didn't intend to jinx your team with my optimistic forecast for last season.  You had the fifth-best scoring defense in the league last year... and still finished with just four wins.  The offense doesn't seem likely to improve any this year:  the starting QB is rookie Weeden (who?), the #1 WR is Greg Little (who?) and the RB is Trent Richardson who has already undergone knee surgery in the preseason.  Looks like another fun season for you, Browns fans.


South

1.  Houston Texans
2011 Prediction:  10-6
2011 Standings:  10-6

I expected the Texans to take over as leader of the AFC South last year, but I didn't think they'd do so with their third-string QB playing six of those games.  If QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson stay healthy, they will have the league's most balanced, if not the most potent overall offense, in the league.  The revelation last year was the Texans' defense, going from literally one of the worst to one of the best in the league.  They did lose Mario Williams in the off season, but he missed much of last year due to injury anyway.  Coordinator Wade Philips has performed a miracle for that defense, and they should easily sweep their division and defeat most other foes, too.

2.  Tennessee Titans
2011 Prediction:  8-8
2011 Standings:  9-7

3.  Jacksonville Jaguars
2011 Prediction:  5-11
2011 Standings:  5-11

I'm just going to describe both the Titans and the Jaguars in the same space, since I think they're pretty similar.  Both teams are relying on young QBs (Titans - Jake Locker; Jags - Blaine Gabbert) who have questionable WRs (Titans - Kenny Britt; Jags - Laurent Robinson) and talented TEs (Titans - Jared Cook; Jags - Mercedes Lewis).  Both defenses are right around top-10 range.  And both teams have star RBs who have held out (Titans - Chris Johnson last year; Jags - Maurice Jones-Drew still holding out). The Titans certainly have better prospects this season, but neither team has good playoff odds.

4.  Indianapolis Colts
2011 Prediction:  8-8
2011 Standings:  2-14

Veterans DE Dwight Freeney and WR Reggie Wayne are pretty much all that remain of the Colts' glory days now that Peyton Manning is gone.  Rookie QB Andrew Luck looks to have a promising future, but the team is going nowhere this year.  The defense is even worse than it was in the Peyton era, and the offense is devoid of any dangerous playmakers (that I know of).  On the bright side, looks like another good lottery pick is on the way for the Colts.


NFC:

East

1.  Philadelphia Eagles
2011 Prediction:  11-5
2011 Standings:  8-8

The Eagles got a little ahead of themselves last year as the supposed "Dream Team."  Still, it's obvious to see that they have the pieces of a title contender, and they showed some of their potential in the last few games of the season.  Despite their slow start, they still finished both eights in points scored per game and tenth in points allowed per game.  They've got an emerging RB star in LeSean McCoy, and dangerous QB Michael Vick has some good receiving options as well.  The Eagles have both a great pass rush and plenty of lockdown cover guys led by Nnamdi Asomugha.  With tempered expectations and a year playing together should put them on the right track.

2.  N.Y. Giants
2011 Prediction:  8-8
2011 Standings:  9-7

The Giants once again snuck into the playoffs as a wildcard, got on a hot streak, and upset a heavily favored, juggernaut TTSNBN last season.  This team struggles for regular season consistency, but with a core led by QB Eli Manning and coach Tom Coughlin that has won two Super Bowls together, they're unlikely to come unhinged, either.  The identity of that core has certainly changed, though:  Eli has gone from game manager to top five passing offense, while their running game is now dead last in the league.  They might still have a good pass rush but they still got burned badly through the air.  The Giants have some strengths, but over 16 games they have plenty of weaknesses to be exploited, too.

3.  Dallas Cowboys
2011 Prediction:  9-7
2011 Standings:  8-8

I keep waiting for the Cowboys' talent to break through and put them among the title contenders, but it hasn't happened and I think their window of opportunity is going to start to close.  In points scored and points allowed they ranked just about in the middle of the league last year.  QB Tony Romo is the foundation of this team, one of the league's most unfairly criticized players; if he gets help from his O-line and a full, productive season from RB DeMarco Murray, this could be a deadly offense.  The 'Boys had a stalwart rush defense last year but a porous pass defense, and Rob Ryan's system has yet to really click in Dallas.  I think it more likely that Dallas regresses than progresses this year.

4.  Washington Redskins
2011 Prediction:  3-13
2011 Standings:  5-11

Considering the resources poured into this team, the Redskins have to be one of the most pathetic pro sports franchises in recent American history.  Instead of overpaying for more mediocre talent (well, we'll see about Pierre Garcon...), Washington decided to go all-in this year, trading valuable draft picks to move up one spot in the draft and get a potential star QB in Robert Griffin III.  I guess last year's complete disaster of a QB situation finally convinced them to do something about it.  If the 'Skins scoring defense can match its yardage defense, and if it can give Griffin room to operate with a decent running game (they're middle of the pack), they could move out of the basement of the division.


West

1. San Francisco 49ers
2011 Prediction:  8-8
2011 Standings:  13-3

Oh, what could have been... the 49ers had broke out from the crap pack of the NFC West last year, falling just short of a Super Bowl appearance.  A dominant defense and good running game got them there, despite mediocre passing from QB Alex Smith.  This off season, the perfect gift fell in their lap:  future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning became a free agent.  If you're 49ers management, how the hell do you not offer him anything he wants?  With him at QB, the 49ers would instantly become Super Bowl favorites this year.  I predict that lack of a passing game will bring San Fran down significantly this year as they rely on their defense (which has some weaknesses) to keep the score low and a rushing attack led by a rapidly aging RB Frank Gore again.

2.  Seattle Seahawks
2011 Prediction:  4-12
2011 Standings:  7-9

The Seahawks managed to impress me for the first time in many years with some great games in the second half last year.  The QB situation is still a mystery - but rookie Russell Wilson and newcomer Matt Flynn have far more potential than last year's choice of Tarvaris "Short-Arm" Jackson.  RB Marshawn Lynch showed a Beast Mode that is difficult for opposing teams to stop.  The defense ranked seventh in points allowed.  And they continue to have one of the biggest home field advantages in the league.  I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm actually interested to see what happens with the Seahawks this year.

3.  Arizona Cardinals
2011 Prediction:  5-11
2011 Standings:  8-8

Congratulations, Arizona, you are the new Seattle Seahawks in my eyes.  They cobbled together one of the luckiest 8-8 seasons in recent NFL history when the "strength" of their team was defense... which ranked basically in the middle of the league.  The QB situation is still a total mess:  they have to choose between Kevin Kolb, a horrible signing last year who looks frightened and average 2 yards per pass, and John Skelton, who is so daring that he throws far more interceptions than touchdowns.  Poor Larry Fitzgerald.  Oh, and they're relying on either RB Beanie Wells, who is persistently injured, or Ryan Williams, who missed his entire rookie year with an injury, to balance their offense.  Good luck.

4.  St. Louis Rams
2011 Prediction:  9-7
2011 Standings:  2-14

What a brutal season.  After showing signs of promise in 2010, the Rams completely face-planted yet again in 2011.  The only good things were another strong year from RB Steven Jackson, and a decent pass defense (of course, they faced Alex Smith, Tarvaris Jackson, and the Cardinals' QBs six times).  I know the WR corps got hit hard by injury last season, but still... Sam Bradford must make major improvements this year.  The whole team does, frankly: there's nowhere to go but up from last season.


North

1.  Green Bay Packers
2011 Prediction:  13-3
2011 Standings:  15-1

What an odd season for the Packers last year.  As defending Super Bowl champs, they somehow almost flew under the radar a bit even as they nearly achieved a 16-0 record.  Then they got knocked out of the playoffs in their first game, against the Giants.  QB Aaron Rodgers is certainly one of the best in the league, but they have to be hoping to get a little more from their running game this year.  Their pass defense also fell off a cliff compared to their Super Bowl team, forcing them into several shoot-outs despite their stellar record.  I guess the question is:  how hungry are they for another Super Bowl?  Is this a complete team, or is it going to be Aaron Rodgers bailing them out each week?

2.  Detroit Lions
2011 Prediction:  10-6
2011 Standings:  10-6

Unlike the Rams, the Lions made good on their potential last year.  Star QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson both finally stayed healthy all year, and are among the best at their positions.  Still, this team is basically Packers-lite:  the running game is beyond pitiful, and the defense gets worked over consistently.  There is a lot of risk but also potential for this team.  Their defense can only improve, in theory, and any kind of a running game would take enormous pressure off Stafford and Johnson.  There could be a temporary regression this year, but I expect overall improvement.

3.  Chicago Bears
2011 Prediction:  6-10
2011 Standings:  8-8

I was very dismissive of Chicago before last season, but they showed some pretty good stuff, at least before injuries destroyed their offense and thus their season.  QB Jay Cutler finally let go of some of his enormous ego and allowed talented RB Matt Forte to provide great balance to the offense.  A few remnants of the dominant defense that took, yes, Rex Grossman to the Super Bowl five years ago are still around, but while their rush defense might be stout, their pass defense was shredded repeatedly.  With Cutler and Forte together, the Bears never failed to score fewer than 24 points in a game, though, so their defense may not be as vital if those two stars can stay healthy.  This is a playoff contender.

4.  Minnesota Vikings
2011 Prediction:  7-9
2011 Standings:  3-13

How the mighty have fallen.  One final good year from Favre helped them to a good run in 2009, but those days are long gone now.  If the Vikings could only play in a league where passing was banned, they might do well with their decent rush defense and superstar (although coming off major injury) RB Adrian Peterson.  But they don't, and passing has become dominant in the NFL.  Not only do the Vikings pin their hopes on second year Christian Ponder, but they also have a pitiful passing defense.  If RB Peterson is limited, this could be an ugly year for the purple guys.


South

1.  New Orleans Saints
2011 Prediction:  9-7
2011 Standings:  13-3

Boy, was I wrong about the Saints last year.  If anything their offense seemed to be better than ever, thanks to the additions of TE Jimmy Graham and RB Darren Sproles.  Of course, everyone is worried about the impact of the "bountygate" punishments, robbing them of their head coach and a few players.    But I think the worries are exaggerated.  This team knows what it does well; Drew Brees can run the offense himself, and he has a surprisingly effective running game behind him to balance it out.  The defense can't really get any worse in the passing department, too; good luck trying to score enough points to beat the Saints by running the ball.  I think the Saints will be just fine.

2.  Atlanta Falcons
2011 Prediction:  12-4
2011 Standings:  10-6

The Falcons should give the Saints some tight competition for the division crown, however.  Pathetic exit from the playoffs aside, the Falcons are a very talented team.  They have steadily shifted the emphasis of their offense from the pounding RB Michael Turner (whose tread is wearing thin) to a fast-paced passing attack with QB Matt Ryan, dependable WR Roddy White, and explosive youngster WR Julio Jones.  The Falcons, like the Saints, are vulnerable to opposing pass offenses, but their rush defense is one of the league's strongest.  With more consistent offensive execution and even slightly improved defense, I expect the Falcons to make noise in the NFC.

3.  Carolina Panthers
2011 Prediction:  3-13
2011 Standings:  6-10

The big story for Carolina last season, of course, was Cam Newton's surpassing even the loftiest of expectations.  Interestingly, though, it was only at the end of the season, when Newton's numbers leveled off, that the Panthers actually started to win games.  They do still have RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, potentially the best rushing duo in the league.  That's great potential for Carolina on offense, but they were terrible on defense, rush and pass.  The Panthers will likely go for a ball-control, slower offense, and so they can't afford to be digging out of big deficits each week.

4.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2011 Prediction:  11-5
2011 Standings:  4-12

Oops.  Another rather embarrassing projection for me.  After an interesting year in 2010, the Bucs finished 27th in points scored and dead last in points allowed.  Ouch.  There was literally no bright spot for this team last year.  The only edge they had over the Rams was that they played in a much tougher division.  Obviously, this is a team that is rebuilding not only at the player level but at the coaching and administrative levels as well.


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Projected Standings for 2012 NFL Season:

AFC

East
1.  TTSNBN
2.  Buffalo Bills
3.  Miami Dolphins
4.  N.Y. Jets

West
1.  Denver Broncos
2.  Kansas City Chiefs
3.  San Diego Chargers
4.  Oakland Raiders

North
1.  Baltimore Ravens
2.  Pittsburgh Steelers
3.  Cincinnati Bengals
4.  Cleveland Browns

South
1.  Houston Texans
2.  Tennessee Titans
3.  Jacksonville Jaguars
4.  Indianapolis Colts


NFC

East
1.  Philadelphia Eagles
2.  N.Y. Giants
3.  Dallas Cowboys
4.  Washington Redskins

West
1.  San Francisco 49ers
2.  Seattle Seahawks
3.  Arizona Cardinals
4.  St. Louis Cardinals

North
1.  Green Bay Packers
2.  Detroit Lions
3.  Chicago Bears
4.  Minnesota Vikings

South
1.  New Orleans Saints
2.  Atlanta Falcons
3.  Carolina Panthers
4.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Playoff Seedings

AFC
1.  Houston Texans
2.  TTSNBN
3.  Baltimore Ravens
4.  Denver Broncos
5.  Kansas City Chiefs
6.  Pittsburgh Steelers
7.  Cincinnati Bengals
8.  Buffalo Bills

NFC
1.  Philadelphia Eagles
2.  Green Bay Packers
3.  New Orleans Saints
4.  San Francisco 49ers
5.  Atlanta Falcons
6.  Detroit Lions
7.  Chicago Bears
8.  Seattle Seahawks

Super Bowl:  Philadelphia Eagles defeat TTSNBN