Sports: 2012 NFL Playoff Preview

2012 NFL Playoff Preview

As I skillfully predicted, the NFL regular season was once again unpredictable.  With the season wrapping up yesterday, it's time to move on to the playoffs where more unpredictable things are sure to occur.  Here's an attempt to guess what might happen, and why I think it'll play out this way.

AFC:

Round 1:
#6 Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) at #3 Houston Texans (12-4):  Houston - 16, Cincinnati - 13

Here we have a rematch of the first round of last year's playoffs, which resulted in a Texans blow out.  I would certainly be surprised see another blow out this time.  Houston, after dominating most of the regular season, lost three of their last four games and dropped to the third seed; meanwhile, Cincinnati fought their way back into the playoffs by winning seven of their last eight games.  Still, the Bengals are a young team and don't possess the firepower needed to get the Texans out of their comfort zone like TTSNBN did.  The Bengals' defense is significantly improved and should keep them in the game, but I see the Texans' running game controlling the tempo enough to pull out a close one.

#5 Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at #4 Baltimore Ravens (10-6):  Indianapolis - 27, Baltimore - 23

Despite winning the AFC North, the Ravens have been mostly a mediocre team this season, certainly regressed from last season.  The steep decline of their defense will especially hurt against the Colts and explosive rookie QB Andrew Luck.  Although the Ravens have had a strong home field edge in the past, they've lost two of their last three at home.  Certainly the Colts have not been a perfect team, benefitting from an easy schedule, and their defense may be at the mercy of a Ravens offense that has at times scored at will and at others ground to a halt.  I see a relatively high-scoring game here, but I already trust the Colts' rookie QB over the Ravens' Flacco who has stagnated the last few years.

Round 2:
#3 Houston Texans at #2 Team That Shall Not Be Named (12-4):  TTSNBN - 38, Houston - 24

Unfortunately, we saw how these teams match up in the regular season, and it's not good.  The Texans' defense, so stellar last year, has fallen back a little, especially in pass defense and that's exactly where TTSNBN kills you.  On the other hand, Houston relies on a steady ground game, which TTSNBN defends reasonably well, while they can't take advantage of TTSNBN's weak pass defense.  TTSNBN does not look quite as formidable as they did last year, and if Houston's defense can hold them to field goals or less early, they have a chance.  But I think it's just a bad matchup for Houston here, they don't have as much experience, and there's always the hope of a nice jinx.

#5 Indianapolis Colts at #1 Denver Broncos (13-3):  Denver - 34, Indianapolis - 17

It's Peyton Manning against his old team - and I'm shocked to see both teams in this position.  The Colts are surely the biggest surprise, going from 2-14 to 11-5.  But although I thought the Broncos could be decent this year, I had no idea that they would get the #1 seed in the AFC.  Quite simply, the Broncos have the most balanced team in the league at the moment.  The only knock on them I have is that after the early season - when they struggled - they really haven't played any tough games.  But the young Colts, playing with a rookie QB in a hostile environment against fearsome pass rushers?  I can't see this game being truly competitive.

Round 3:
#2 TTSNBN at #1 Denver Broncos:  Denver - 31, TTSNBN - 27

I doubt Tom Brady thought he'd be facing Peyton Manning this late in the playoffs again after seeing his old rival miss all of last season with the neck injury.  Making this pick scares me because I don't want to jinx the Broncos... but I think it's the right call.  Home field advantage should make Denver's younger players comfortable, and Peyton is surely hungry to slay TTSNBN again.  Just as Denver has not faced stiff competition recently, TTSNBN has not faced an elite QB since, well, these two teams played in the regular season.  I could really see just about anything happening in this game of the AFC's two best teams, but home field and a more well-rounded team give Denver the edge.


NFC:

Round 1:
#6 Minnesota Vikings (10-6) at #3 Green Bay Packers (11-5):  Green Bay - 28, Minnesota - 17

I got to see this game last weekend, and now to have an encore?  I give the Vikings a lot of credit not just for the effort they put forth to win last week, but also to battle hard just to get to the playoffs over the last few weeks.  Since Minnesota won last week, they obviously could win again, but I don't think so for a few reasons.  First, you've got to think that at some point RB Adrian Peterson is going to have a less-than-super game as the offense has been on his shoulders for months now.  And I don't trust QB Ponder one bit to pick up any slack.  On the other hand, the Packers have elite QB Rodgers, home field, and quite of motivation of their own.  They pull away in the second half, I predict.

#5 Seattle Seahawks (11-5) at #4 Washington Redskins (10-6):  Seattle - 13, Washington - 10

Here we have two of the hottest teams in the league right now, both led by sensational rookie QBs.  If this game was being played in Seattle, I would take the Seahawks comfortably.  But on the road they're not quite as good.  I see a defensive slugfest with a LOT of punting.  Both teams have very good RBs to complement their athletic QBs, but I think the defenses will prevent the big plays and force long, slow marches down the field.  Both these teams have bright futures, and for an "ugly" game, this one should still be entertaining and exciting.  I think Seattle's edge in defense will outweigh Washington's edge in passing offense.

Round 2:
#3 Green Bay Packers at #2 San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1):  Green Bay - 24, San Francisco - 13

This should be an interesting game, certainly different from their week one match.  If Green Bay does get past Minnesota, they should have some nice momentum or at least rhythm, while San Francisco will have had some much-needed rest.  I think the game probably rests on how QB Colin Kaepernick plays - and this being his first playoff experience, I would be surprised to see another huge game from him.  If Green Bay can contain Peterson, then surely they can do the same to RB Gore.  While the 49ers have a great defense, TTSNBN showed that even a big lead is not necessarily safe from a dangerous passing attack.  I think the Packers will have the focus and experience necessary to win this one.

#5 Seattle Seahawks at #1 Atlanta Falcons (13-3):  Atlanta - 20, Seattle - 17

An interesting matchup here.  As surprising as it sounds when you just look at the seeds, Seattle could be the Vegas favorite here, due to Seattle's late-season play and the Falcons' notable playoff woes.  And just like in the first round, if this game was being played in Seattle, I would take them comfortably.  But I like the Falcons here:  they're great at home, tired of losing in the playoffs, mad at being talked down, and a truly different team than what they've been prior to this season.  Matt Ryan has shown great improvement and he has great receiving threats; they even learned how to successfully mix in their weaker running game.  Seattle could very well win, but I think this is a statement game for Atlanta.

Round 3:
#3 Green Bay Packers at #1 Atlanta Falcons:  Green Bay - 35, Atlanta - 28

Despite an important win in round 2, I think Atlanta will fall in the conference championship.  After facing bitter divisional foes and the 49ers' fierce defense, the Falcons' cushy dome and soft defense will seem downright friendly to Rodgers and co.  I highly doubt that this will be low-scoring game, at any rate.  I think maybe it comes down to Green Bay being hungrier than simply advancing in the playoffs - they want and expect another Super Bowl.  And, of course, Matt Ryan is still looking up to Aaron Rodgers in the league QB hierarchy.  Should be an entertaining one, if it comes to these two teams.


Super Bowl:

Denver Broncos vs. Green Bay Packers:  Denver - 30, Green Bay - 21

More and more, it tends to be the elite, or at least clutch, veteran QBs who end up in the Super Bowl.  2007 with Rex Grossman (!) was the last time it didn't happen; since then it's been Brady vs. E. Manning, Roethlisberger vs. Warner, Brees vs. P. Manning, Roethlisberger vs. Rodgers, and Brady vs. E. Manning (with the same happy result).  A Denver-Green Bay finale would give us P. Manning vs. Rodgers, which would certainly continue the trend.  This game would put Peyton back into his natural habitat (a dome), and the Broncos' defense is much better than the Packers'.  Even with all of Denver's advantages, though, I would expect this to be a fun, competitive match.  We'll see!