Sports: 2013 NFL Preview

2013 NFL Season Preview

It's that time of year again!  Summer is coming to an end, students are going back to school... and football returns.  Each NFL season has its share of surprises, which is a big part of what makes it so fun, but I'll make a few predictions here about how each team will fair in its division (and a review of how I did with last year's predictions... although I'm not sure I want to know!).  Rather than discuss each team individually, I'll do it by division.  I may be back with another movie review next weekend, after which it looks like there might be a bit of a drought as I glance at the release schedule.  I'd also like to get a review of the summer in tennis, too, so that's another upcoming post.  For now, on to the 2013 NFL preview!

Divisional Predictions

AFC:

East
2012 Predicted Standings:
1. Team That Shall Not Be Named (TTSNBN)
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Miami Dolphins
4. New York Jets

2012 Final Standings:
1. TTSNBN (12-4)
2. Miami Dolphins (7-9)
3. New York Jets (6-10)
4. Buffalo Bills (6-10)

2013 Predicted Standings:
1. TTSNBN
2. Miami Dolphins
3. Buffalo Bills
4. New York Jets

As in the last bajillion years, the AFC East in 2012 was TTSNBN served up with a side of poo-poo platter.  Although TTSNBN is facing major changes on offense, Buffalo and NY Jets both look like they might be going backwards.  Last year, the Jets and Dolphins were both pretty good on defense and terrible on offense; while the Dolphins have a decent, developing young QB (Tannehill), a new explosive WR (Wallace) and a potential new RB star (Miller), the Jets lost their top RB from last year (Greene), deal with injury and incompetence at QB, and I've never heard of any of their WRs.  Buffalo can't defend anyone, and their QB situation could be even worse than the Jets' (although if rookie Manuel can get healthy, he has some potential).  TTSNBN has already mathematically clinched this division.


West
2012 Predicted Standings:
1. Denver Broncos
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. San Diego Chargers
4. Oakland Raiders

2012 Final Standings:
1. Denver Broncos (13-3)
2. San Diego Chargers (7-9)
3. Oakland Raiders (4-12)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)

2013 Predicted Standings:
1. Denver Broncos
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. San Diego Chargers
4. Oakland Raiders

This division was the AFC East last year, only worse.  Denver finished in the top 10 of almost every statistical category.  Why?  Because they got to play the other clowns in the division six times.  I see no reason to think Denver won't run away with it again, QB Manning presumably fully recovered now, and with the addition of WR Welker.  Their best defender is suspended for the first 6 games, though, so it could be tougher early on.  I keep predicting the Chiefs to break through, which they did last year - into the cellar.  I'll try it again, though since they have a major upgrade at QB (yeah, it's Alex Smith, but I had to turn them down last year when they called) and coach Andy Reid who led the Eagles to a decade plus of strong seasons.  I don't see the Chargers going anywhere (although Norv Turner's gone, a plus); and the Raiders are still the Raiders (Pryor at QB?! lololol).


North
2012 Predicted Standings:
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Cleveland Browns

2012 Final Standings:
1. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
4. Cleveland Browns (5-11)

2013 Predicted Standings:
1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Cleveland Browns

The Ravens took the NY Giants' entire playbook last year, playing like an only slightly better than mediocre team through the regular season, then getting red-hot in the playoffs to win it all.  After hilariously overpaying their mediocre QB and losing lots of defensive veterans, I don't see another playoff run.  Cincinnati looks like the team to beat; their offense was excruciating to watch at times, but they have a young RB with potential (Bernard), and the Dalton-Green connection should only grow stronger.  Their defense may become the best in the division this year.  Defense was what kept the Steelers afloat last year, but how long can it last?  RB is a shambles once again, and they lost WR Wallace.  I wouldn't be completely surprised if (*gulp*) the Browns get out of the division cellar, with strong young RB Richardson, an improving defense and a generally younger lineup.


South
2012 Predicted Standings:
1. Houston Texans
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Indianapolis Colts

2012 Final Standings:
1. Houston Texans (12-4)
2. Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
3. Tennessee Titans (6-10)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)

2013 Predicted Standings:
1. Houston Texans
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars

It's amazing how weak the AFC has become.  Yeah, this is a lazy, boring prediction for this division, but it's kind of a lazy and boring division anyway.  Houston is really strong on offense and defense - with room to improve in the passing game, even.  They just collapsed at the end of last season, though, and you have to wonder if this is yet another perennially strong team destined to come up short when it counts.  The Colts way outperformed their stats last year; I think the experience of winning will help, but I'd be surprised if there wasn't any regression.  QB Luck is very good, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of talent around him.  The Titans and Jaguars are stuck with terrible defenses and young but not really developing QBs.  Their RBs are nice for fantasy football, but these teams are cannon fodder.


NFC:

East
2012 Predicted Standings:
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. New York Giants
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. Washington Redskins

2012 Final Standings:
1. Washington Redskins (10-6)
2. New York Giants (9-7)
3. Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)

2013 Predicted Standings:
1. Washington Redskins
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. New York Giants
4. Philadelphia Eagles

This remains one of the most interesting divisions in football, with four proud and popular franchises constantly at each other's throats to get to the top.  The Redskins have a formula for sustained success; their running game is great, and even if RGIII gets hurt again, Cousins is a reliable backup.  Plus, they have a lot of room to improve on defense, which would make them even better.  The Eagles have a new coach and offensive system, but I've given up on this group.  Maybe they'll finally turn the corner, but I'm not predicting it.  The Cowboys seem to always be underachieving, and the Giants overachieving, making my prediction precarious.  But I like the Cowboys' talent a lot more than the Giants, and they have to put it together some time, right?  I'm hearing crickets.


West
2012 Predicted Standings:
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Arizona Cardinals
4. St. Louis Rams

2012 Final Standings:
1. San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
2. Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
3. St. Louis Rams (7-8-1)
4. Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

2013 Predicted Standings:
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Arizona Cardinals
4. St. Louis Rams

What an amazing turnaround for this division over the last few years; once the laughingstock of the league, it now is a force to be reckoned with.  Seattle and San Francisco are nearly carbon copies of each other, in my view; young, mobile QBs; strong running games; physical, dominating defenses.  I feel that the 49ers have a few more questions marks going into the year, which is why I have Seattle at #1.  St. Louis was OK last year, but they lost RB Jackson, and so their offense is full of entirely unproven players.  Their defense will likely have to step up big time to repeat last year's "success".  However, Arizona made a huge upgrade at QB - to Carson Palmer... and RB Mendenhall could be a dependable rusher.  With more offensive weapons, I rank them ahead of the Rams.


North
2012 Predicted Standings:
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Detroit Lions
3. Chicago Bears
4. Minnesota Vikings

2012 Final Standings:
1. Green Bay Packers (11-5)
2. Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
3. Chicago Bears (10-6)
4. Detroit Lions (4-12)

2013 Predicted Standings:
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Chicago Bears
3. Detroit Lions
4. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings had the flukiest season to me, somehow finishing at 10-6 and making the playoffs.  Yeah, they have RB Peterson and... what else?  QB Ponder?  Their defense is mediocre.  The Packers should remain the class of the division, with the NFL's best QB in Rodgers.  They also have a rookie RB in Lacy who could give them some balance, and the defense performed much better last year.  Chicago and Detroit, like NY Giants and Dallas, are hard to assess.  The Bears defense was dominant last year, but can they keep that up?  Surely their offense can't be any worse, although QB Cutler is definitely a bonehead.  Detroit has a lot of potential, but like Dallas, they need to convert that into actual wins.  I certainly think they'll be better than last year, but still too inconsistent to make the playoffs.


South
2012 Predicted Standings:
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2012 Final Standings:
1. Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
2. Carolina Panthers (7-9)
3. New Orleans Saints (7-9)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

2013 Predicted Standings:
1. Atlanta Falcons
2. New Orleans Saints
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It was amazing to see just how the Saints fell last season.  Coach Payton was suspended for the entire season, but I don't think they had any other significant losses, showing just how much he means to them.  He's back now, and I think with a little defensive improvement (dead last in 2012), they should be in playoff contention again.  The Falcons are the new leaders of the division, though.  Their offense is nearly as potent as the Saints', and their defense greatly improved last year.  I don't see another 13-3 season from them, but they should win the division again.  Carolina is kind of a strange team.  Their stats indicate they should have had a better record, but I don't see them getting significantly better (though their defense is underrated).  Tampa Bay is held back by its defense and QB, and that's never a good combination.


Playoffs

AFC:
1. TTSNBN
2. Houston Texans
3. Denver Broncos
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Baltimore Ravens
6. Kansas City Chiefs

NFC:
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Washington Redskins
4. Atlanta Falcons
5. San Francisco 49ers
6. New Orleans Saints

Super Bowl:  Denver Broncos beat Seattle Seahawks