Saturday, October 2, 2010

Sports: NFL Picks, Week 4

Well, I finished 9-7 last week... although, I did pick the Atlanta-New Orleans score EXACTLY, so that makes up for it. As usual, a mixture of surprises, bad luck, and outright bad estimations of team strength. Who would have thought that the only teams remaining undefeated at this point would be Pittsburgh (minus Ben Roethlisberger), Kansas City, and Chicago?!?! Here we go again:

San Francisco at Atlanta: Atlanta, 35-13
I am officially throwing myself off the 49ers bandwagon, head first. They just got shellacked by KC, and so have now played two bad games out of three. Atlanta, meanwhile, just beat the defending champs a week after blowing out an admittedly bad team, after losing in overtime to the 3-0 Steelers. Can we say "blowout"?

Cincinnati at Cleveland: Cincinnati, 13-10
Here's another AFC North bruiser. Cleveland showed a lot more resilience against Baltimore than I thought they were capable of, especially with new RB Peyton Hillis. Cincinnati, meanwhile has two very solid wins after getting blown out by TTSNBN. I expect a defensive battle, mostly due to inept offenses (Carson Palmer looks terrible).

NY Jets at Buffalo: NY Jets, 24-16
With two good games out of three, I'm leaning toward the Jets being contenders rather than pretenders. Their offense has really blossomed after that horrible first game. Buffalo is terrible, although they did give TTSNBN a run for their money last week. But the Jets' defense should ensure that they don't ever really feel threatened, barring special teams disasters.

Seattle at St. Louis: St. Louis, 20-17
These two teams had surprising outcomes last week. Seattle owed its win, though, to not one but TWO kick returns for TDs. Listening on the radio, Rivers seemed to slice and dice their defense late in the game. Rookie Bradford is no Philip Rivers, but he led the Rams to a shocking 30-16 victory over the Redskins. Over the last few years, Seattle has played much better at home than on the road, which is why I'm taking the Rams here.

Denver at Tennessee: Tennessee, 23-14
While Chris Johnson has given me good fantasy numbers for two of three games, quietly he's been struggling on a run-by-run basis. I expect him to break out eventually, but who knows when. Their defense, however, has been one of the best in the league this year. And they'll need a good pass defense against Denver, which inexplicably has been slinging the ball with Kyle Orton putting on his Peyton Manning impression. RB Moreno is out, which means Denver will be even more one dimensional, spelling their doom.

Detroit at Green Bay: Green Bay, 42-21
Poor Detroit. Blew an opportunity to really embarrass Favre and send him and the Vikings to 0-3. Green Bay gift-wrapped their game against Chicago and even provided delivery service. However, I think even if Green Bay has EIGHTEEN penalties again, they'll still win this one.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Baltimore, 13-10
This has to be the most violent rivalry in American sports right now. While the Steelers have been playing really well, I think they come back down to earth a little for this one. Unfortunately I think the Ravens are really gonna lock down on my fantasy star Mendenhall and make Batch beat them in the air, which he won't be able to do. Still, Pitt's defense is so good that they should keep the offense within striking distance all game.

Carolina at New Orleans: New Orleans, 38-17
Carolina is looking pretty inept this year. Despite having an explosive RB tandem, they have done virtually nothing on offense, and are starting a rather bewildered rookie at QB. Their defense hasn't been any better, either. I'm confident that New Orleans will adjust after last week's loss, probably more stable on offense now in the second week without Bush. Saints playing at home should enhance this.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: Indianapolis, 34-13
Jacksonville is looking even worse so far than I thought they would prior to the season. Philly just humiliated them last week. Their reward is a matchup against Peyton and Company. Indy looks right back on track after their first week loss, and I doubt Jacksonville will give them too much of a challenge.

Houston at Oakland: Houston, 30-20
After embarrassing Dallas in the preseason, then starting out 2-0 vs. Dallas' 0-2, Houston sure got a bucket of ice-cold water to the face last week. Not having seen it, I'm not sure how well Dallas' defense played vs. how poorly Houston's offense played (and vice versa). I'm guessing, though, that it was just another stage of growing pains for what eventually should be a strong contender. They should bounce back here.

Washington at Philadelphia: Philadelphia, 35-17
Boy, I really want McNabb to smear Philly in this game. To trade him like that, and to a division rival at that, was just total disrespect for a guy who endured the city's crappy, go-with-the-wind fans and bench-happy coach for over ten years. On the other side, you have Michael Vick, a former dog-fight ring leader who admittedly paid his dues but of whom I'm still suspicious (not to mention very dubious of all his new bandwagon fans). Sadly, I'm afraid Vick's Eagles will probably smash poor McNabb and the Redskins.

Arizona at San Diego: San Diego, 31-10
Are San Diego's typical early season woes over? Although I'm not sure Mathews is back for this one, I think the Chargers will be just fine.

Chicago at NY Giants: Chicago, 24-17
Chicago has now been lucky to win two of its three games. The first, thanks to Calvin Johnson being lazy and not holding onto the ball, and the second due to the Packers' crazy penalty woes. Still, their offense has looked pretty decent, and the same for their defense. Meanwhile, the Giants just look awful. The running game which served as their backbone in the Super Bowl year is long gone, and Eli just isn't good enough to carry the team by himself.

TTSNBN vs. Miami: TTSNBN, x-x
I was quite encouraged to see the Bills manage to pretty much go score-to-score with TTSNBN last week, despite losing. I think TTSNBN's offense is good again this year, but their defense looks suspect. Miami is looking pretty solid this year, but they'll have to play much better defense than they did last week to have a chance to take down TTSNBN.


2010 Picks: 28-20

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