Thursday, October 7, 2010

Sports: NFL Picks, Week 5

So, a 9-5 last week ain't too shabby. There continue to be a number of surprises - but that's the parity of the NFL, and part of what makes the league so fun to follow. I was particularly surprised that Atlanta only barely won; St. Louis won in a route (though I did predict them to win); Green Bay's struggle to take down Detroit (ditto for New Orleans over Carolina); Indianapolis losing to lowly Jacksonville (although that was a division game); and Chicago's complete implosion. Now for a new batch of games to guess!

Jacksonville at Buffalo: Jacksonville, 24-14
Theoretically, the Jags' big win over Indy will give them enough of a boost to be half decent, at least for a little while. They'll probably at least use it to pounce on a dismal Buffalo Bills team, with Jones-Drew being the only real offensive weapon in this one.

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati: Tampa Bay, 27-10
Here's one of my first bold upset picks of the year, now that we're a quarter of the way through and have seen all the teams for a few games. The question is: how good is Cincinnati? Losing to the Browns was not a good sign. Palmer actually had a good game, but I'm still skeptical about him. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay had a bye week to think things through after being blown out by Pittsburgh (which I got to watch). They're a young, dynamic team, and I think they'll be ready for the upset here.

Atlanta at Cleveland: Atlanta, 20-13
The Brownies did beat Cincinnati last week - but, as I've said before, division games are a different animal in the NFL. I think Atlanta's struggles last week were a combination of facing an inconsistent 49ers team that does have some considerable talent, and a sign that the team is still not quite ready to seize the division from the defending champs. But, I think they'll take care of business here, ugly or not.

St. Louis at Detroit: St. Louis, 38-35
Wow, perhaps the Rams really are an improved team. They got a monkey off their back beating division rival Seattle, and handily at that. While I'm sure they'll come back to earth hard at some point, Detroit doesn't have the defense to make them pay. I expect a shootout, which should make for an actually entertaining game (or at least I hope, since I'll probably be watching it here in Ann Arbor).

Kansas City at Indianapolis: Indianapolis, 34-27
Here will be another high scoring game, I think. The Colts have trouble stopping the run, and that's just the Chief's specialty. However, the Chiefs can't stop the pass, and that's bad news against Peyton Manning. Indy gets just enough stops to win a surprisingly close game.

Green Bay at Washington: Green Bay, 21-17
Hard to get a good reading on these teams. The Packers have tremendous potential, but they keep shooting themselves in the foot, and losing player after player to injury. The Redskins lose to the Rams, then beat down Philly (yes!!!) Again, though, both teams had division games last week, and I think we'll see the overall strength of Green Bay trump the 'Skins. I think Rodgers will outgun McNabb in a somewhat ugly game.

Chicago at Carolina: Carolina, 13-6
Oh, boy. Todd Collins vs. Jimmy Clausen, anyone? Chicago certainly has the stronger defense, but Carolina at least has threats at RB to offset their passing game. Plus, Collins might be KIA here, if the Bears allow another NINE sacks or more in a single half like they did last week.

Denver at Baltimore: 24-21
This should be a very interesting game. Denver showed that it can hang tough in a close game last week against the Titans, and their passing game is nothing to sneeze at. While the Broncos face a more balanced attack against the Ravens' offense this week, they have shown signs of life. Baltimore might have a let down after their big win over the Steelers. I think it'll be a close one, no matter who wins.

N.Y. Giants at Houston: Houston, 31-27
Is the Giants' pass rush back? Perhaps, but I think last week's performance was more due to the Bears' ineptitude. They also face the problem of Arian Foster, who will make them pay big if they just try to zone in on Schaub. I do have questions about Houston's defense, though, so this could very well be another high scoring game. Houston's offense is just better though.

New Orleans at Arizona: New Orleans, 45-21
The Saints' offense should finally take flight again here, against a miserable Cardinals defense. And if it doesn't, there are big worries for New Orleans' chances at defending the title. Plus, their defense hasn't been great against non-division foes, so how many points they give up to undrafted rookie QB Hall will also be a big indicator.

San Diego at Oakland: San Diego, 31-20
The Chargers seem to be in good form again, following a thrashing of the Cardinals. Rivers is having fun tossing TDs to my fantasy TE Gates, and a healthier RB Mathews should make the offense even more dangerous. Another divisional game, so I doubt it'll be a complete rout.

Tennessee at Dallas: Dallas, 21-20
Time to see if the Dallas running game can get going. Romo has been steady as a rock, but they'll need a balanced attack against the Titans' defense. Speaking of running games, when is Chris Johnson going to start busting out? Every defense is CLEARLY keying on him, almost entirely. So the answer might be, when does Vince Young start making defenses respect the pass? Dallas is known for undisciplined tackling, which could lead to some big plays for Tennessee, thus making it a close one.

Philadelphia at San Francisco: San Francisco, 10-7
To be blunt, I have no idea. I have no idea who will win, let alone the score. My gut says that SF will play a little better at home, and their defense will handle a constantly changing Philly offense thanks to all their QB issues.

Minnesota at NY Jets: 35-14
Brett Favre against his old team! I bet he loves hearing that one. A bad game for the offense to get in gear with Moss, I think the Jets are just going to cream them here. Plus, the Jets get their own star WR back in Holmes, plus Revis returns to haunt Moss again. And the Jets' offense has been humming along just fine without their star receiver.

2010 Picks: 37-25

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